EE.UU. dará un paso militar sin precedentes en la isla japonesa más cercana a Taiwán
La próxima llegada de misiles antibuque para maniobras conjuntas coincide con una grave crisis regional y el malestar de China por la actividad militar extranjera cerca de su frontera.
Framing
taiwán la próxima
misiles antibuque
crisis
dará un paso
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The case for pulling US military back from the first island chain
Late last month, Japan’s defense ministry made an unsettling announcement. A U.S. ground-based missile system, known as the Typhon and capable of firing Tomahawk missiles, would not return to the United States after being deployed to Japan for military exercises. Instead, it would be stored at Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, at least temporarily. Tokyo tried to downplay the move, noting that the decision was intended to support training, not warfighting, and that no U.S. Army units would deploy with the missile system. But the reassuring language is unlikely to forestall the negative consequences of the posture change: an increase in military tensions along the first island chain in East Asia. The timing of the decision, following closely on the heels of the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Washington, may seem out of sync with Donald Trump’s “dovish” outreach to Beijing. But the contradiction is a feature, not a bug, of the Trump administration’s Asia policy. By calling for a “decent peace” but building a “denial defense along the first island chain,” a region that stretches across Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines, Trump seems destined to undermine his own efforts to stabilize the U.S.-China relationship and even to increase the medium-term risk of conflict between the two global powers. The paradox in the Trump administration’s approach to Asia is best articulated in the National Defense Strategy published earlier this year. The strategy lays out two aims. First, it calls on the U.S. military to “set conditions for a balance of power in the Indo-Pacific that allows all of us—the United States, China, and others in the region—to enjoy a decent peace.” Second, it declares the U.S. intention to “erect a strong denial defense along the first island chain to…ensure that the Joint Force always has the ability to conduct devastating strikes and operations against targets anywhere in the world.” In the Pentagon’s strategic rationale, the latter aim is a prerequisite for the former. This is wrong. Instead, the two goals are fundamentally incompatible. To understand why, it helps to take a closer look at what a denial defense in Asia requires and its practical effects from Beijing’s perspective. The U.S. interest in building a “denial defense” in East Asia is not new to the Trump administration. In fact, the U.S. military has long used the first island chain as the center of gravity of its military posture in Asia, positioning some 80,000 military forces at bases in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and even Taiwan. The primary purpose of these forces is deterring Chinese aggression toward its neighbors (and especially Taiwan) by raising the perceived costs of such aggression for Chinese military planners and political leaders. To that end, the United States has positioned dozens of fighter jets; warships; artillery and longer-range missiles systems; and air defense on U.S. bases along the first island chain. The Trump administration’s focus has been on strengthening this first island chain denial defense. In addition to the new missile system housed in Japan, Washington is planning to upgrade the fighter jets deployed at bases in the country. It is also building new military infrastructure in Luzon, the island in the Philippines closest to Taiwan, and modifying the types of forces deployed at strategic locations in Japan, the Philippines, and even South Korea. In the future, these personnel will be armed with new anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles intended to prevent China from projecting military power across the Pacific. But while Washington describes this military posture as defensive, from the Chinese perspective, the U.S. position along the first island chain is abrasive and threatening. It is not hard to understand why. Intermediate-range missiles positioned close to the Chinese mainland, fighter jets at bases only a few hundred miles away, and warships patrolling waters off China’s coast can only seem aggressive to…
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